If you like to watch football often, then you probably saw a lot of goals in added time. Sometimes your bet was placed in the last second of the match, and sometimes it was the other way around. A goal in stoppage time deprived you of your winnings. If you think that the main number of goals is scored in the final segment of the fight, then you are right.
If the game is divided into time intervals of 5 minutes, then the final five minutes accounts for the largest number of goals scored.
A similar situation is observed in all football tournaments and every year, if it changes, it is insignificant. Since this pattern is not one-time, but constant, it makes sense to use it to make money. But do not rush to run to make bets on all matches in a row, since this approach is doomed to failure in advance. Let's analyze the criteria by which it will select events for betting on goals in the final segment of the match.
1. Account difference
The advantage in the account at the end of the match should not exceed 2 goals. If the losing side only needs one goal to get hold of the points, then they will try to do it with all their might. When the outcome of the meeting is decided and the gap is more than 2-3 goals, then few people will waste their energy.
Pay attention to an important nuance. If this is a two-legged duel, then you need to take into account not the current score in the game, but the entire confrontation. The team can lose 0: 3, but to reach the next stage, it only needs one goal.
2. The underdog wins
This happens with excessive enthusiasm for attacking actions. Football players forget about defense and concede on a counterattack. In situations where an outsider scores first and is in the lead, chances are high that the favorite will level the score or even make a comeback.
3. Derby or principled confrontation
If irreconcilable opponents or even eternal enemies are playing, then the desire to score a goal will not disappear even when the score is 4: 0. And the team that loses will try in every possible way to score a goal of prestige.
4. Position in the standings
For example, in the group stage of European competition, in order to advance to the playoff round, a team in final round must beat the opponent with a difference of at least 3 goals. If in a duel she gains an advantage of 2 goals, then at the end of the meeting she will definitely rush forward. Perhaps he won't score, but here the opponent has a chance to catch the overplayed team on a counterattack.
5. A lot of shots on target
Let's move on to statistics. Of course, it would be foolish to bet on a goal before the final whistle if the opponents never hit the target. The more accurate shots, the higher the chances of the ball reaching the target.
Read about how to bet on shots on target.
6. Removing a player
If the team has minus one player, it is more difficult for it to defend. But here the players start to give their best and run, as they say, "for themselves and that guy." You need to be careful with this nuance.
A great option is to remove the goalkeeper, especially if the coach has already used all the substitutions. No matter how well the fielder stands in the frame, he is still not a goalkeeper.
7. Substitutions during the meeting
First of all, this concerns the exit of the player of the attacking plan. By the way, even if the teams do not have motivation, it can be for an individual athlete who wants to prove himself by scoring a goal. Or it happens that the mentor decided to take care of the team leader. He counted on easy victory, but without best striker seems to be indispensable. The coach makes such a substitution - this increases the likelihood of a goal being scored.
8. Team statistics
In every championship there are strong-willed and weak-willed teams that score and concede more often than others at the end of the match. It is in the events with these teams that it is advisable to place such bets.
Let's summarize
It is quite problematic to intuitively understand the most appropriate moment to bet on a goal at the end. Try to wait for the moment when the quotes increase. It is very annoying to monitor the event for a long time, but not have time to make a bet, since the goal has already occurred.
Players often score after penalties and set pieces, so if you watch the broadcast of the match with a minimum delay, it would be nice to make a bet if you see something like this on the field. Naturally, the decision must be supported by analysis and be consistent with the above factors.
Watching the video: Football role information
Often there are situations when the decisive goal is scored on last minutes match. The fans have a real feeling that clubs are scoring in the last minutes in almost every match. Not surprisingly, last-minute goals are not uncommon. In any championship, most of the goals are scored in the last five minutes of a football match.
Five-minute goal statistics
For a simple example, let's analyze the performance statistics of the Russian championship of the 2016-2017 sample. From 85 to 90 minutes the most goals were scored (48). With such an interesting trend, there is a chance to make good money for the bettor. However, if you make a bet on each subsequent match, then the bank will begin to decrease, not increase. Analysts from bookmakers are well aware that the probability of a goal scored in the last five minutes of the match is extremely high, so the odds are slightly underestimated. To select events, you need to take into account the factors affecting the probability of a goal scored at the end of the meeting.
Selection criteria for football matches
In most Live strategies, there are many criteria for the selection of matches, where a goal is expected at the end of the meeting. Therefore, we will highlight eight main factors that will help bettors calculate the events they need for a potential bet:
1. The difference in the score is less than two goals. It is more efficient to place bets when there is an advantage of one or two goals for the team. In this case, the opponent is eager to recoup, so he actively goes on the attack, leaving his own rear uncovered. In this case, most of the goals are scored from counterattacks.
2. The outsider wins. Often there are situations when a conditional outsider is the first to score the ball into the opponent's goal and is in the lead. At the same time, the outsider does what he “puts the bus on” and tries to achieve the retention of the desired result. Of course, in almost all cases, the favorite wins back, reducing the match to at least a draw. It is also highly likely that the outsider will strengthen his own success, scoring in the last minutes with a counterattack.
3. Significant opposition. This factor is unique to the derby. Regardless of the score, each team tries to score the ball. The favorite is trying to defeat the principal rival, and the conditional outsider is trying to answer the favorite and also get a victory. In any case, the struggle continues until the last minute.
4. Position in standings. For group stages in European competition there is a regularity in the difference in goals scored. For example, a team needs to beat an opponent by two goals to advance to the spring playoff stage. With the score 1: 0, the team will try to score the second goal in order to get the desired result. In this case, one should also not exclude the opponent's goal on the counterattack.
5. The lack of a goalkeeper. Often there are situations when the goalkeeper is removed from the field, and the coach has spent three substitutions. In this situation, there is nothing left but to put a field player on the goal. With this combination of circumstances, the probability of a goal being scored increases.
6. The total number of shots on goal. There is no point in betting on a possible goal if teams rarely shoot on goal. The more the teams hit the goal, the more the chance of a goal being scored.
7. Substitution of attacking players. In most cases, coaches decide to replace the attackers at the end of the game. This decision is inherent in coaches whose teams are losing by one goal or simply want to catch a losing opponent on a counterattack. At the same time, there is a good chance for a footballer to show his own potential and establish himself for participation in the first team for the next game.
8. Motivation of clubs. There are often motivated teams in each championship for each subsequent match. In this case, it makes no sense what the score is on the scoreboard. The main thing is that the team is constantly determined to score the ball and plays attacking all 90 minutes of the match.
Generalization
If you stick to your own intuition, then there will be no benefit in betting from this. It is important to know eight aspects of a good team play in the last minutes of matches. In this case, you need to wait for the right moment when the bookmakers put the most suitable quotes on scored ball... It is in the last 2-3 minutes that the teams completely switch to the opponent's half, providing an excellent opportunity to score against the opponent from a counterattack.
With a qualitative analysis and taking into account eight aspects, you can make verified bets on events, increasing your own bank.
Then, for sure, you have already had a situation more than once when the rate was held until the last minutes, but a goal from one of the teams ended up spoiling everything. Most importantly, the feeling that more goals are being scored in the last minutes is not at all false. Indeed, if we break the game time into five-minute intervals, then most goals fall on the last 5 minutes. This is a real regularity in almost any football tournament.
Example
The graph clearly shows in which minutes the most goals are scored in the Premier League. this season... If we take the previous seasons, the overall picture will change slightly. In the last 5 minutes, the most goals are scored in almost any football tournament(there are exceptions, but they are very rare).
If there is such a pattern, then you need to try to make money on this. Naturally, if you bet on goals in the last minutes in all matches in a row, you will end up at a loss. Bookmakers understand that the likelihood of a goal at the end of the game is higher, therefore the pre-match odds for such markets are understated.
Teams will not aim to score a goal at the end of the game if the score is 3-0 on the 75th minute. Therefore, according to this strategy, bets are best made in Live mode. You can select matches for such bets according to the following criteria:
1. By the end of the match, the score difference is less than 2 goals
If a team needs only one goal to save the situation, then its players will try much harder than in a situation where you need to score 2 or 3 goals. Players know how to assess their strength, so in a hopeless situation, the game will most likely dry up.
2. The outsider wins
If the outsider wins with a difference of one goal, then there is a very high probability that the favorite will snatch a draw or even a victory at the end of the meeting. Also, there is often a situation when the favorite is overly addicted to attacks and, as a result, concedes a goal.
3. There is a derby or a game of irreconcilable opponents
In games like Schalke 04 - Borussia Dortmund, the winning team will aim to score a goal after a three-goal difference, and the losing team will definitely try to score a prestige goal.
4. Difficult position in the standings
Often in the group rounds of the Champions League or Europa League in the last round, it happens that a team needs to win with a difference of 3 or more goals in order to qualify from the group. If during the game she wins 2: 0, then at the end of the match you can expect an abundance of dangerous moments and a likely goal.
5. Many shots on target
It is clear that betting on a goal in the last minutes would be unreasonable if the teams hit only 1 shot on target during the entire game. The more shots on target are delivered by teams, the higher the probability of a goal.
6. Removal of the goalkeeper
This rate will be especially relevant if, at the time of removal, all substitutions by the coach have already been used.
7. Coming out to replace a strong attacking player
Even if teams have lost the motivation to score goals towards the end of the game, the substitutes may have it. This is a great opportunity for a player to prove to the coach that he deserves a place in the first squad.
8. Individual team statistics
In each tournament there are several strong-willed and weak-willed teams that score and concede more often than others in the last minutes. It is in the matches of such teams that such bets should be made.
It is very difficult to intuitively sense the best moment to bet on a goal at the end of the game. It is advisable to place such a bet no more than a few minutes before the goal, when the odds for this market take maximum values.
Remember that very often goals are scored after corners and free throws, so if you follow the video broadcast of the game without a big picture delay, then you can place a bet even before the bookmakers lower the odds on this event.
Many bookmakers offer to bet on goals at certain intervals of matches. You can make a bet both during matches and before their start. If we look closely at the statistics of the distribution of goals, we will see that most of them are scored in the last segment of the fights. For example, let's take the statistics of goals in the Bundesliga, Spanish and English championships.
We see that some teams played more than 40% of the matches in which they scored goals in the last 15 minutes of regular time. For many teams, this figure exceeds 30%.
We will bet on goal in the last 15 minutes of the game offline.
We will make bets on matches in which the opponents strikingly carry out the endings of the second halves. As a rule, these are teams playing open football that cannot play defensively. Of these, stand out:
- Werder Bremen of the 2000s;
- Arsenal;
- Borussia D;
- Barcelona;
- Ajax;
- Freiburg;
- MJ;
- MS;
- Levante.
Our task is to find fights with the participation of teams that have at least 30% of meetings in which they scored goals from the 76th to the 90th minute. Since we need at least one goal from any team, its probability will be from 60%. If we translate it into the odds per goal in the last 15 minutes, we get the value 1.66.
Offices' quotes for such an event are usually higher:
How to choose matches for a goal strategy in the last 15 minutes
When selecting potential candidates for the chosen strategy, it is necessary to take into account the motivation of the teams. It is good if the position in the standings obliges both teams to play attacking football. For example, one is claiming a prize or getting into the European Cup zone, while the other is fighting for survival. No one is happy with a draw. The confrontation can develop according to several scenarios:
- In the first half, one of the teams gains an advantage of 1 or more goals. This means that the second will have to go large forces attack. As a result, he will either score or concede in a counterattack. The probability of a goal in the final segment of the meeting increases.
- The first half ends in a draw. Both teams are not happy with this outcome, and they will expose the rear in the second half of the meeting to score a goal. The chances of seeing the ball in the net in the last 15 minutes are high.
- By the end of the meeting, there was a significant advantage in goals of one of the rivals. As a rule, the inferior team aims to score a prestige goal. In many cases, she succeeds in doing this. The winning club usually slows down and offers a chance to get the ball into their own goal.
- The teams scored the same number of goals by the 75th minute. At the end of the game, coaches release strikers and attacking midfielders to secure the victory.
All of the above scenarios are most often encountered in meetings of motivated teams. They will definitely have chances of a goal in the end. Even if the goal does not happen in the current match, he will definitely be in the next one. For every lost bet, there will be several won. If you bet flat or a percentage of the bank, depending on the coefficient, then on long distance will be in the black.
When choosing a match for this strategy, it is imperative to take into account the weather forecast. If pouring rain or snow is expected, then such a fight is clearly not suitable. It is very difficult to create scoring situations on a viscous and slippery field. The number of dangerous moments can be counted on the fingers of one hand. Most often, goals in such cases fly in after ricochets and look random.
Online betting
It is promising to bet on a goal in the final segment after 20-30 minutes of the game. By this time, one can be convinced of the high motivation of opponents and understand how charged they are for the game. As a rule, teams that are focused on attack seek to score, having achieved the necessary advantage.
The odds, of course, can decrease or increase depending on the ups and downs of the game. Before the start of the meeting, it is important to determine the minimum odds at which it makes sense to make a bet. Having determined the break-even point and the size of the bet, you can catch the most profitable quotes.
It is very important not to succumb to excitement and learn how to skip a match if the quotes for events of interest are underestimated.
Fights in which the referee often draws a yellow card will be promising for online betting. This speaks of the uncompromising nature of the match, in which the participants do not want to concede. The likelihood of a red card increases, which leads to dangerous moments at the goal of the team playing in the minority.
Betting on a goal in the last 15 minutes of the meeting in UEFA European Cup matches
The European Cup matches deserve a separate analysis. A distinction should be made between group round matches and elimination matches. In the Europa League and the Champions League, teams often score in the final stages of meetings. In the end, fatigue builds up, the fans drive their teams forward, and the number of dangerous moments increases rapidly.
The bettor's task is to find clubs playing loosely in the attack, which do not put up five defenders and two defenders. The best option- Dutch teams. They do not defend very well, but they carry out many dangerous attacks. At the end of the meeting, either they score, or to them.
Don't take Italian teams or Atlético Madrid. They dry up the game well if a draw suits them somehow. More often than not, such teams are more likely to play for a draw, even if it does not really fit into the tournament alignment. In the last minutes, the game with their participation is often divided into small segments, and the number of dangerous moments is minimal.
In European playoffs, the emphasis should be on the return leg. In the first matches in the final rounds, clubs devote more time to defense. It often happens that the hosts, having achieved a minimal advantage, in the second half of the game do not go forward with large forces. Guests can be satisfied with a minimal defeat. They strive to maintain such a score and not miss more, hoping to win back at home.
In the second match, events may develop depending on the score in the first. If the difference in the score in the first leg is more than one goal, then you can expect an effective return game. As a rule, there will be goals in the final segment of the meeting, especially in the confrontation between the attacking teams.
The number of matches and the size of bets for the strategy
On weekends, bettors can find up to 10 fights that fit the betting strategy in question. There are a lot of matches in the UEFA Europa League and Champions League group stages during the UEFA European Cup weeks. You can bet on those in which attacking opponents meet. Meetings with the participation of German, Spanish, Dutch, and English clubs look promising.
Since the odds for a goal in the last 15 minutes vary between 1.7 and 2.4, it is necessary to bet a percentage of the bank: from 4 to 6%. In no case should you use dogon after several consecutive lost meetings. The bettor's task boils down to finding the most productive teams, having at least 30% of meetings, in the end of which goals were scored. Quotes must be valuable. In this case, you can count on long-term profit.
There are bets in the list of bookmakers on the goal in the last minutes... This is usually the last 10 or 15 minutes of the fight. If we take the statistics of goals in European and other championships, we can see that the most goals are scored in the final segment.
For an illustrative example of a strategy game, consider the performance of teams from the Italian championship:
We see that slightly less than half of the clubs have a goal scoring rate in the last 15 minutes of the match that exceeds 20%. Dedicated teams are suitable for this betting strategy. If on scored a goal in the last minutes one of the teams, then the bet will be the winning one.
Betting method
We will make bets online, in the middle of the second half. The matches are selected in advance, in which the teams that have more than 25% of the matches in which they scored goals in the final 15 minutes meet. In this case, the probability of a goal will be at least 50%.
Next, you should find those that put quotes above 2 for similar positions. It is desirable that they approach 2.5. In this case goal in the last minutes will bring tangible profits. It will be profitable to play at such odds in the long run. You need to bet 5-5.5% of the bank.
Clubs need to be carefully analyzed. In each championship, there are teams that have more than 30% of meetings with goals at the end. They should be emphasized. These are not just teams that rely on attacking play. They have to play stronger at the end of all matches and often score goals. An example of such clubs is Inter, 17-18 years old, with a score of more than 30%.
If two teams of approximately equal class meet with a high percentage of successful endings, then the probability of a goal in the final segment will be very high.
When choosing clubs, be sure to consider their motivation. It is optimal when both clubs need to win, but a draw does not suit in any way. Cup return matches are suitable, in which one of the teams is always not satisfied with the current score.
You should skip the match if by the final segment both teams are satisfied with the current score and they do not make efforts to score. Goals scored in the last minutes happen in such matches:
- When the advantage of one of the teams is 1-2 goals. The opponent tries to score and moves forward with great forces. In such cases, the probability of a goal in any goal increases significantly.
- If there is a draw until the middle of the second half, which does not suit either side. In the end, they are forced to attack with large forces.
- If by the end of the game one of the teams has a big goal advantage. The opponent is trying to score a prestige goal. The winning team doesn't mind that much.
The state of the field should also be taken into account. If it's of poor quality, it's best to skip the game right away. Hope for a standard position or goal in extra time in such cases it is not worth it.